2:00PM Water Cooler 8/30/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, this Water Cooler is gappy as a result of I needed to do some precise analysis, a number of instances [lambert sighs in martyred fashion]. Extra to come back as I attempt to catch up. –lambert

Fowl Track of the Day

Jap Whip-poor-will, 10 Miles South Of Meadow Portage, Manitoba, Canada. From 1960, so extraordinarily old-school. “Recordist’s Notes: night. Additionally: cattle, Wilson’s snipe, one other whip-poor-will, horned owl. 4-hundred and seventeen examples of the ‘Whip-poor-will’ Name of BNA* or, extra appropriately, the music of C. v. vociferus.” NOTE * BNA = “Birds of North America.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil palms unclean. –William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

* * *

“The Sweep and Power of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public which means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working via it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been quite a whole lot of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Battle. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are quite a whole lot of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:]

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated via his position within the riot that befell on January 6, 2021.

Taking “riot” as learn (I have to do extra studying), extra on my persevering with protection of Part Three.

* * *

“Fox Information’ Jonathan Turley: Federal courts might intervene if Trump wins the presidency whereas serving time in state jail” [Media Matters]. “President Trump may certainly pardon himself for federal crimes. For the state crimes, it may create some severe issues. The courtroom would first should sentence him into jail. However then federal courts might get entangled to the extent that that might intervene with presidential capabilities. We clearly haven’t been down that highway however now we have to look in direction of it and it’s going to be a messy scenario. The courts are going to should cope with it.” • Democrats had no downside “interfering” with “presidential capabilities” after they launched RussiaGate. So there’s precedent. Which is that “interfering with presidential capabilities” is jake with the angels, even, or maybe particularly, when spooks do it!

Our Famously Free Press

What:

The @FBI emailed me their proposed edits to my upcoming e book. They need me to redact data re: Jan 6, Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping, and my assembly with FBI executives about my protected whistleblower disclosures. Hmm… No, I feel I am going to publish all of it.https://t.co/WC2qxKbhdc

— Steve Buddy (@RealStevefriend) April 22, 2023

Don’t know the creator, haven’t learn the e book. However since when do the organs of state safety get to censor books about home affairs?

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Trump May Clinch the Nomination Earlier than the G.O.P. Is aware of if He’s a Felon” [New York Times]. “The previous president’s trial is scheduled to begin March 4, by which level 5 states are anticipated to have held nominating contests. The following day, March 5, is Tremendous Tuesday, when 15 states, together with delegate-rich California and Texas, plan to carry votes that can decide if any Trump challenger has sufficient political oxygen to stay a viable various. Primaries in Florida, Ohio and Illinois come two weeks later. Florida and Ohio would be the first winner-take-all contests, by which the highest vote-getter statewide seizes the entire delegates quite than splitting them proportionally. Winner-take-all primaries have traditionally turbocharged the front-runner’s path to the presidential nomination. Mr. Trump’s federal trial, if it proceeds on its present timeline, gained’t be near completed by then. The collision course between the Republican Occasion’s calendar and Mr. Trump’s trial schedule is emblematic of some of the uncommon nominating contests in American historical past. It’s a Trump-dominated conflict that can outline not solely the course of the 2024 presidential major however probably the longer term route of the social gathering in an eventual post-Trump period.” • Dunno if it’s “Trump-dominated.” Who introduced the costs, and who set the calendar?

“Trump’s Free Speech Runs Up In opposition to Courtroom Decorum” [The Wall Street Journal]. “The one restriction Chutkan positioned on Trump within the Washington case is a bar on discussing the case with potential witnesses. And earlier this yr, New York Supreme Court docket Justice Juan Merchan, presiding over Trump’s state case associated to hush-money funds to adult-film star Stormy Daniels, mentioned he wouldn’t impose a gag order on Trump even when prosecutors requested one. ‘Such restraints are probably the most severe’ and the least tolerable below the First Modification, the choose mentioned, including: ‘That does apply doubly to Mr. Trump, as a result of he’s a candidate for the presidency of the USA.’” • To this point, then, all sides are jockeying for the battle to come back. IMNSHO, battle would profit Trump, so he’ll do what it takes (no “guardrails”). I don’t suppose Trump would choose witness intimidation*, but when that’s what it takes…. NOTE * Can a “swamp creature” actually be intimidated? I doubt it. Now, if Trump intimidates any of the “contingent electors” who’re to testify, that might be a unique matter for me, since they’re as harmless as anyone on this mess might be.

* * *

Wait. What about my freedom? Why can’t I reside my life?

Not evacuating makes “a hazardous scenario”: DeSantis
Comply with reside: https://t.co/o5YFpGCp3G pic.twitter.com/Jv5h6LOgZH

— The Hill (@thehill) August 30, 2023

Sure, a hurricane is hazardous. However apparently a pandemic attributable to an airborne Degree 3 biohazard will not be. Make it make sense. Truthfully, I’m ready for the CDC to suggest handwashing to Floridians.

* * *

“Marianne Williamson Can’t Promote Prez Marketing campaign on TV … However Tiktok Saving the Day” [TMZ]. “Williamson has raked in over half one million followers — probably the most on the app in comparison with different candidates — and since making the change, she’s been polling above 20% with voters below 30. If ya can’t beat ’em, go viral.” • Want a hyperlink on that polling, however given Carlson’s success on Twitter — not that I belief the precise numbers, why would I? — it is smart that Williamson would have some success.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Wisconsin Supreme Court docket chief justice accuses liberal majority of staging a ‘coup’” [Associated Press]. “The conservative chief justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court docket on Monday instructed the brand new liberal majority in a scathing electronic mail that that they had staged a ‘coup’ and performed an ‘unlawful experiment’ after they voted to weaken her powers and hearth the director of state courts. Chief Justice Annette Ziegler, in two emails obtained by The Related Press, mentioned that firing and hiring a brand new state courtroom director was unlawful and ordered interim state courtroom director Audrey Skwierawski to cease signing orders with out her data or approval. ‘You make a large number of the judiciary, the courtroom and the establishment for years to come back,’ Ziegler wrote to her fellow justices and Skwierawski. ‘This should cease. … I’ve no confidence within the latest hostile takeover and the chaotic impact it has had on the courtroom, employees, and the general secure functioning of the courts.’ Liberals gained a 4-3 majority on Aug. 1 when Justice Janet Protasiewicz started her 10-year time period after successful election in April. Conservatives had held the bulk for 15 years previous to that. The emails are the most recent signal of broiling tensions on the courtroom since liberals took management.” • Mood, mood! (And what the heck does “making a large number of” imply? Did I not get the memo on this new lawyerly time period of artwork?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“In New Hampshire Tackle, Sanders Calls for Democrats Tackle Company Greed” [Bernie Sanders]. Musical interlude:

However, if Democrats are severe about successful elections and addressing the key crises that we face, they need to go additional. They have to embrace the working class of this nation in a method which hasn’t been executed in virtually 60 years. It’s completely absurd that, given the anti-worker ideology and insurance policies of the Republican Occasion, that social gathering now has extra working class assist than Democrats.

It needs to be deeply worrying that, in accordance with latest polls, Democrats are shedding an increasing number of assist inside the Latino group and even amongst Black males. That has obtained to alter – not only for the well-being of the Democratic Occasion however for the way forward for our nation.

The Democrats, as soon as and for all, should reject the company wing of the social gathering and empower those that are ready to create a grassroots, multi-racial, multi-generational working class social gathering in each state on this nation. Democrats, via phrases and motion, should make it clear that they stand with a struggling working class, a disappearing center class, and thousands and thousands of low revenue Individuals who’re barely surviving.

Sanders must learn Thomas Frank’s Pay attention, Liberal!. They might quite die as a celebration then take Sanders’ recommendation. As I wrote on the time, a small however actual opening for Sanders to make this pivot personally was in 2020, proper after Biden confirmed he was keen to contaminate his supporters at superspreading polling areas to make his numbers. At the moment, Sanders was not solely a candidate, however a motion chief, along with his mailing listing nonetheless energetic, and with some momentum (if solely he had gained Texas on Tremendous Tuesday, and never simply California). Extra to the purpose, the upsurge in labor exercise and organizing that we nonetheless see right now was already occurring then. Pivoting away from electoral politics to supporting all types of labor organizing, backed by a motion, on a nationwide stage would definitely have been greeted with choose in-level enthusiasm by a good portion of Sanders’ mailing listing; most likely the one individuals who would have resisted critically would have been Sanders’ idpol-addled employees, already in search of jobs with the following marketing campaign. As an alternative Sanders — as certainly he warned us he would — shrank himself all the way down to a “progressive” Democrat. Ask your self whether or not the working class would have been higher off throughout our ongoing Covid pandemic below my various historical past, or below Biden. Too unhealthy. That opportunithy won’t ever come once more; Democrats will make sure that of it.

“Covid Denialism” [Eschaton]. Quoting in full as a result of Atrios is so terse: “Timelines get a bit jumbled in my head generally, however pondering via I spotted if the Covid vaccine had appeared 3 months earlier, Trump may’ve taken credit score for it (he nonetheless may, simply too late!) and doubtless coasted to re-election. Would’ve wiped a lot of the covid denialism (and positively the vaccine resistance) away. As an alternative we’re nonetheless caught with it.” • It’s certainly one in all life’s little ironies that electing Trump in 2020 would have saved lots of of hundreds of lives. However ya know, so far as the timeline, I posted this in Water Cooler on November 9, 2020* (the election was November 3):

The third discordant notice.

The Biden workforce was knowledgeable earlier than the press launch went out:

2) Biden workforce was knowledgeable final night time concerning the Pfizer vaccine’s preliminary findings. And his workforce is appropriate in stating the vaccine remains to be months away from public availability. So till then, public well being security measures nonetheless wanted. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/FQnLDmU0gX

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 9, 2020

(The Pfizer press launch was time-stamped “Monday, November 09, 2020 – 06:45am”; in different phrases, after “final night time”.) The fourth discordant notice. And the fifth:

“BioNTech, Pfizer shares soar after COVID-19 vaccine candidate achieves ‘success’ in first evaluation” [MarketWatch] and “Inventory futures surge, with Dow futures up 1100 factors, after Pfizer vaccine information” [MarketWatch].

Lambert right here: Any person with a paranoid and suspicions disposition can be strongly reminded of remdesivir. Remdesivir was hyped in a press launch, and instantly endorsed by an professional ([genuflects] Anthony Fauci), which had the impact of “ramping” (Yves’s phrase) Gilead’s inventory, in a way that might have permitted insiders to revenue who might need been conscious of Fauci’s plans earlier than they have been executed. We see the very same sample with Pfizer’s vaccine — solely this time, anyone on or related to Biden’s workforce may have profited. Why not, in any case, inform the Biden workforce with the press launch, and never earlier than? Absolutely there are norms about that? In fact, remdesivir was additionally a humid squib, sadly albeit profitably for Gilead. One solely hopes the identical will not be true of Pfizer, an organization for which fraud will not be unknown.

Oh, and both Yglesias is inhumanly wide-eyed and harmless, or he thinks that is sketchy too:

middle>

Biden launched the names on his Covid job power early this morning and inside an hour we had a 90% efficient vaccine. Discuss constructing again higher!https://t.co/vKEiDqObk9

— Matthew Yglesias ? (@mattyglesias) November 9, 2020

NOTE * Oddly, I couldn’t discover this on Google, however I did discover it on Bing.

“Pfizer CEO says he would’ve launched vaccine knowledge earlier than election if potential” [Axios]. From November 9, 2020, nonetheless germane. • In order that’s alright then. By no means consider something till it’s been formally denied. Flip Atrios’ publish round. Realizing what we all know now about election 2020, and in addition understanding what we find out about how Huge Pharma manipulates its trials, are we actually to consider that Pfizer couldn’t have manipulated its personal inner timeline, such that the info to judge its vaccines was solely obtainable after the election? 

“Pfizer CEO: Our vaccine timing had nothing to do with politics” [CNN]. From November 9, 2020. Nonetheless germane.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep secure on the market!

Censorship and Propaganda

For some definition of “mission” and “achieved”:

Precisely this. https://t.co/mrpvb63dO3

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) August 30, 2023

On the intense facet, Social Safety payouts will likely be taking place!

Variants

“1st Canadian case of extremely mutated COVID-19 virus variant BA.2.86 detected in B.C.” [CBC]. The headline is the shot. The deck is the chaser: “‘We’re not seeing extra extreme sickness, however it’s one thing for us to … proceed to look at’: Dr. Bonnie Henry.”

Transmission

“Scientists Sound the Alarm: COVID-19 Virus Is Quickly Evolving in White-Tailed Deer” [SciTech Daily]. “New analysis has discovered that white-tailed deer throughout Ohio have been contaminated with the virus that causes COVID-19. Alarmingly, the outcomes additionally present that viral variants evolve about thrice quicker in deer than in people. Scientists collected 1,522 nasal swabs from free-ranging deer in 83 of the state’s 88 counties between November 2021 and March 2022. Greater than 10% of the samples have been optimistic for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and not less than one optimistic case was present in 59% of the counties by which testing befell. Genomic evaluation confirmed that not less than 30 infections in deer had been launched by people – a determine that stunned the analysis workforce. ‘We usually speak about interspecies transmission as a uncommon occasion, however this wasn’t an enormous sampling, and we’re in a position to doc 30 spillovers. It appears to be transferring between folks and animals fairly simply,’ mentioned Andrew Bowman, affiliate professor of veterinary preventive drugs at The Ohio State College and co-senior creator of the research.” • Not good for the burbs, the place deer are pests.

Coverage

“COVID mitigation make sense whether or not or not it’s a pandemic” [New York Daily News]. “one of many unlucky upshots of the acute politicization of public well being has been the outline of mitigation as all-or-nothing. Both now we have shutdowns or everybody breathes immediately on one another in a crowded room. In actuality, we must always get comfy dwelling someplace in between…. That may imply pushing to reinstate authorities funding holding COVID checks and boosters free after it’s largely fallen by the wayside, not as a result of it’s a disaster, however as a result of it’s an excellent funding and a method of really stopping a disaster. It may also imply selecting as a person to put on a masks throughout upticks in infections, skipping out on social occasions in the event you’re feeling sick, and pushing for employers to be extra versatile about employees staying house when sick. .” Or — comply with me intently right here — placing in your garments in the event you’re going out in public. Extra: “Let’s not neglect that contending with COVID hasn’t produced a definitive victory however an arms race, one by which a very nasty rising variant may crash via the protections we predict we’ve established…. On that entrance, it’s good that town continues to supply testing and vaccination at no cost, making it now an outlier nationally. But these instruments are solely nearly as good as their utilization, so it’s on everybody to do their half. Nobody likes getting sick, in any case.” • Cigarette smoking is not a matter of “selecting as a person.” So why are “people” “selecting” to exhale hazardous bio-effluent into our shared air given any type of deference in any respect?

Elite Maleficence

As readers know, CDC director Mandy Cohen recommends handwashing, however not masking, towards Covid. Maybe she’s projecting? As a result of her personal palms are so soiled?

Given nearly all of public well being messaging, you’d suppose that the general public was only a bunch of panic-prone folks with filthy palms.

— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) August 29, 2023

Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 1: “Right here’s the scent of the blood nonetheless. All of the perfumes of Arabia is not going to sweeten this little hand.” Plainly Woman MacBeth has a Covid symptom: parosmia. I ponder how Rochelle Walensky and Mandy Cohen sleep at night time. Do the phrases “She has gentle by her regularly” apply to them?

Case Information

From BioBot wastewater knowledge, August 29:

Lambert right here: Completely satisfied reminiscences of tape-watching days! A flattening curve? 

Regional knowledge. As we are able to see, the nationwide flattening is because of the Midwest downward swoop:

I’m just a little mistrustful of that Midwestern knowledge. I don’t know why the Midwest can be flattening, and the remainder of the nation not. (At this level, allow us to do not forget that depressives are the one character kind that precisely assesses threat, and that introverts make good actuaries.) So I expanded the regional chart to a yr:

So the discrepancy we see within the six-month chart will not be unknown. (I additionally seen what I ought to have seen earlier than, that each one the peaks, whether or not below Donald, the First of His Title, or Biden, are within the Northeast. That is case counts, not deaths, however it does are inclined to throw chilly water on the concept Covid’s continued prevalence is because of these darned Purple States and their vaccine refusal. 

Anyhow, it did happen to me that Illinois held in fief by J.D. Pritzker, a person who’d seize the Presidency like a fistful of donuts if provided, however who for that very motive must look extra loyal than loyal, so I checked out Illinois wastewater within the final fifteen days:

No gaming right here that I can see. Not sufficient lower-case b blue. And the nationwide map:

Loads of blue in Michigan, however is Michigan actually sufficient to show the nationwide tide? Midwest readers, what do you see?

Variants                 

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model reveals that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.

From CDC, August 5:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems like now we have a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 all the way down to dimension. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 26:

Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Observe the highlighting.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of August 29:

Nonetheless getting worse. However how a lot worse? I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

NOT UPDATED Right here is CDC’s map…. “In Previous Week,” as a result of there’s no [family blogging date]:

Orange = “substantial improve” (greater than 20%). The cadence: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Mondays and Thursdays by 8 p.m. ET.” So apparently, on Friday, I’ve to match the map right here with the one on the CDC web site to see if the replace has, in truth, been carried out. Why are they making me suppose?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED Walgreens, August 28:

So, Walgreens is again within the recreation (and how on earth did that debacle occur? We breathlessly await the information protection). The share of positives is the best ever, although absolute numbers are nonetheless small relative to previous surges.

NEW Cleveland Clinic, August 26:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. 

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 7:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Based mostly Genomic Surveillance” knowledge, confirming the present surge, solely two weeks late. Certain can be helpful to know if there have been any BA.2.86 in these samples, although!

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 23:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,173,448 – 1,173,422 – 1,173,081 =  26. 26 * 365 = 9,490 deaths per yr, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they will discuss themselves into something.–> If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 29:

Lambert right here:  Again to virtually day by day. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran perpetually with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually taking a look at it, so I obtained rid it. )

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Personal companies within the US employed 177 thousand employees in August 2023, the least in 5 months, lacking market expectations of a 195 thousand rise and following an upwardly revised 371 thousand improve in July.}

Journey: “How The Steep Decline In Chinese language Vacationers Will Price The U.S. Extra Than $20 Billion” [Forbes]. “‘Earlier than Covid,’ Raimondo mentioned, ‘as many as three million Chinese language vacationers visited the USA yearly, contributing greater than $30 billion to the U.S. economic system.’ In 2019, 2.8 million Chinese language guests accounted for less than 4% of all inbound overseas vacationers to the U.S., but they accounted for 13% of spending. This yr, fewer than 850,000 Chinese language will journey right here, in accordance with the Nationwide Journey & Tourism Workplace (NTTO), the company inside the U.S. Division of Commerce that tracks tourism statistics. That 68% drop in traveler quantity interprets to greater than $20 billion that Chinese language guests is not going to spend within the U.S. this yr. Three months after the official finish of the pandemic, the U.S. tourism trade remains to be in restoration mode. Earlier than Covid, 79.4 million worldwide guests to the U.S. injected roughly $239 billion into the nationwide economic system, accounting for almost 10% of America’s whole exports and providers. In 2023, the U.S. expects to welcome 62.8 million overseas guests–a 21% year-over-year leap however nonetheless 21% under pre-Covid numbers. Inbound journey quantity to the U.S. will not be anticipated to hit pre-pandemic ranges till 2025.” • Simply in time for the following airborne pathogen.

Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 50 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 50 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 30 at 2:02 PM ET. C’mon, Mr. Market! By some means!

The Gallery

Materials actuality (1):

Materials actuality (2):

Lowry seems like a detective on the scene of against the law:

As certainly he’s: The crime is social homicide.

Class Warfare

“Amazon CEO reportedly tells distant employees ‘it’s most likely not going to work out for you’” [MarketWatch]. “Earlier this yr, Amazon requested all of its employees to return to the workplace not less than three days every week by Could 1. That sparked a vocal backlash from staff, together with a walkout in Could. The scenario was exacerbated in July, when Amazon warned that some staff could also be compelled to relocate to the corporate’s essential workplaces in large cities. ‘It’s previous the time to disagree and commit,’ [Chief Executive Andy Jassy] mentioned in a latest employees assembly, in accordance with Insider, which cited a recording it obtained.  ‘And in the event you can’t disagree and commit, I additionally perceive that, however it’s most likely not going to work out for you at Amazon as a result of we’re going again to the workplace not less than three days every week, and it’s not proper for all of our teammates to be in three days every week and for folks to refuse to take action.’” • He appears good. How’s the air flow, Andy? Certain, Amazon workplaces are hellholes, however are additionally they dying traps?

Information of the Wired

“A DIY ‘bionic pancreas’ is altering diabetes care — what’s subsequent?” [Nature]. “What they wished was automation — an algorithm that might analyse glucose knowledge and program the pump itself. Coalescing round this purpose in 2013, the group debuted a hashtag: #WeAreNotWaiting. Then, in February 2015, group member Dana Lewis shared the code for an algorithm that she and two collaborators had developed and examined. ‘We didn’t set out do to something large,’ says Lewis, now an unbiased researcher in Seattle, Washington. However quickly, individuals who had downloaded and used the algorithm shared their private experiences and gave suggestions. When customers recommended tweaks and potential enhancements, others tried them and reported again. Katarina Braune, an endocrinologist at Charité – Berlin College Medication, estimates that round 30,000 folks now use open-source know-how for automated insulin supply (AID). Some use Lewis and colleagues’ authentic OpenAPS system, which requires a minicomputer to regulate it, whereas others use both AndroidAPS (which developed from Lewis’ system) or Loop, that are smartphone functions.” • Wow!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “It appeared high quality after I took it… however now I’m seeing how taking this photograph on the angle I did has made for some keystoning that has me questioning if I may have straightened any of these traces in enhancing, or if to straighten one would ship others careening. I’m seeing how taking this photograph on the angle I did has made for some keystoning that has me questioning if I may have straightened any of these traces in enhancing, or if to straighten one would ship others careening. I like that this nursery (Sherman Library & Gardens in Corona Del Mar, California) has uniquely employed this cupboard as each shelf (drawer), and shade (cabinet)… after which, I all the time love a splash of multi-hued hydrangea flowers.” Effectively, my angle on the whole lot is fairly skewed, so maybe I’m not one of the best choose. Readers?

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets: