By Thomas Neuburger. Initially revealed at God’s Spies
Excessive-speed rail in Japan. Max pace: 374 mph.
Two components to wrap your head round. They join, as you’ll see.
Life With out Air Journey
The primary is a hypothesis on what it will imply to be with out air journey solely. The supply is right here from the BBC: “What would a flying-free world appear like?”
Some background:
Aviation has lengthy been a ache within the neck for these working to chop human-caused greenhouse fuel emissions. It’s the pinnacle of a “hard-to-decarbonise” sector: energy-intensive, missing in rapid technical choices to make it decrease carbon, and strongly related to the existence of the richest and strongest in society.
It has additionally turn out to be one of many quickest rising sectors emissions-wise. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from planes grew 30% between 2013 and 2019 whereas the CO2 emissions development within the wider financial system between the identical years was simply 4%.
And a few of their conclusions:
- It might finish the carbon air pollution of a polluting sector. “Grounding all flights on Earth would instantly put a cease to the 2.5% (and rising) of annual CO2 emissions which come from burning gas in aeroplanes, slicing CO2 emissions by round one billion tonnes per 12 months and eliminating a sector beforehand resulting in rising emissions.”
- It might finish contrails which have an outsized warming impact. “In contrast to CO2, which stays within the environment for hundreds of years, these non-CO2 emissions have a short-term, however very sturdy, warming affect which has been estimated asprobably tripling the general warming impact of aviation in comparison with CO2 alone.”
- “Many individuals’s every day lives can be unaffected, no less than instantly. Simply 11% of the worldwide inhabitants took a flight in 2018 and at most 4% took a global flight.”
- Nations and other people depending on tourism can be arduous hit, “particularly islands closely depending on tourism and largely solely accessible by airplane. The massive decline in travellers in 2020 [he first pandemic year] put over 100 million tourism jobs in jeopardy: many can be completely misplaced.”
- Whereas most items aren’t shipped by air, many high-value or perishable items are. “Meals air freight would additionally require adjustment. The 47,000 tonnes of recent or chilled fish flown from London Heathrow airport annually, for instance, would have to be delivered frozen if going by ship. Extremely perishable recent fruit and veggies like grapes, mangoes and avocados would disappear from supermarkets within the winter, with an increase within the consumption of frozen fruits as an alternative. The provision of flowers grown abroad would plummet.”
- Humanitarian support can be in danger. “Air freight is used to ship medical provides and prescribed drugs world wide. It performed a significant position in delivering vaccines throughout the pandemic, for instance. It’s also used throughout humanitarian disasters to ship meals, water and medicines.”
- Excessive-speed rail would turn out to be an instantaneous precedence.
Excessive-Pace Rail Across the World
Think about the final level above: Excessive-speed rail would turn out to be an instantaneous precedence.
Right here’s the buildout of high-speed rail worldwide in 2016 (blue) and projected for 2025 (crimson), supply The Guardian. Most of that projected observe has been laid already; China is now far within the lead.
The U.S. claims to have high-speed rail, however barely. Relating to the Acela (decrease proper on the graphic):
Acela trains are the quickest within the Americas, reaching 150 miles per hour (240 km/h) (qualifying as high-speed rail), however solely over 49.9 miles (80.3 km) of the 457-mile (735 km) route.
Fifty miles of low-speed high-speed rail. And holding. Go us.
Not Going to Occur…
The second factor in as we speak’s piece is that this: When you begin to consider high-speed rail changing air journey, you start to see a bigger drawback. Actually, a really giant drawback. Within the U.S., nothing that challenges fashionable industrial life goes to vary until circumstance (which means, collapse) forces it to.
Futurist Marshall Mind (sure, that’s his title) has thought of this subject no less than twice. As soon as in a Doomsday article (right here), and as soon as in a Spacemen-can-save us article (right here).
Within the Doomsday article, he generously ascribes the failure of our leaders to their nice concern for our welfare and lives:
“If planet Earth stopped burning fossil fuels as we speak, what would occur?”
The reply is simply as easy: The results can be profound, and billions of individuals would die inside a 12 months. Why?
• Trendy agriculture would come to a lifeless cease. Practically each tractor on the earth, and each mix harvester, is powered by fossil fuels. With out fossil fuels there can be no plowing, no planting, no cultivating, no harvesting. Due to this fact, there can be no meals for individuals to eat and billions would starve to demise.
• Trendy transportation would come to a lifeless cease. Even when there have been meals, it strikes round a rustic like america in diesel vans and diesel trains and diesel ships. With out fossil fuels, all these autos cease transferring and all of us starve to demise.
• Trendy electrical energy grids would come to a whole cease. Greater than half of the electrical energy in america comes from fossil fuels like pure fuel.
• Trendy factories would come to a whole cease. Factories want electrical energy and fossil fuels to energy their operations, they usually want vans and trains to usher in the uncooked supplies for the factories to digest.
With out these 4 necessities, fashionable society collapses. All of them require fossil fuels.
And:
Can we wean all these sectors off fossil fuels? Sure, in fact. However it can take a long time even when we ignore all the ability wielded by the incumbent fossil gas corporations and their lackeys. What if we noticed a headline tomorrow that stated, “World leaders allocate $10 trillion to quickly decarbonize all of worldwide agriculture, transportation and electrical energy technology in 5 years.”? We are going to by no means see this headline. There is no such thing as a group of world leaders pondering on this means. World leaders are usually not on the verge of allocating this type of cash. Nor are world leaders even considering such an allocation.
Trendy economies can be burning fossil fuels, and subsequently including gigatons of carbon dioxide to the environment, for a lot of a long time to come back. Historical past reveals us that that is what is going to occur. Trendy economies will do that as a result of there’s no near-term various to fossil fuels that doesn’t contain spending trillions of {dollars} to hurry issues up. As a result of world leaders don’t need their individuals to starve and die, fossil gas consumption will proceed largely unabated.
I like his generosity, his unwarranted assumption of billionaire concern, however nonetheless, he makes a very good level. The plain resolution is Plato’s benevolent dictator, what Plato calls the “thinker king.” However who would that be?
…Until the Aliens Step In
Clearly, we received’t get a thinker king anytime quickly, not from amongst ourselves. We’ll have dictators aplenty, although none benevolent, and none with enough energy.
Which results in his good, implausible resolution — aliens from house who actually need solely our good. What would they do to resolve our issues for us?
First, how did these benevolent aliens acquire management? The author offers them nice energy.
The primary act of the Sleeborans [the aliens] was apparently to neuter the planet’s army forces in each nation. Each nuclear missile silo and transporter was mysteriously disabled. Each army submarine and warship misplaced the power to maneuver or fireplace its weapons. Each army jet, helicopter, tank or transport was disabled and grounded.
The second act for the Sleeborans was to satisfy with each excessive authorities official and company chief on the planet. Apparently the Sleeborans had transporter rooms like those in Star Trek, as a result of a Sleeboran robotic, in keeping with information experiences, appeared within the workplace or house of 1000’s of essential and rich individuals throughout the planet. …
The third act was for the Sleeborans to deploy thousands and thousands of robots throughout the planet in each inhabitants middle, from small cities to main cities. There gave the impression to be roughly one robotic per 100 individuals. These robots appeared to do nothing except they detected anger or violence or what could be regarded as felony or impolite habits – issues like theft, vandalism, racism, misogyny. The robotic would seem on the scene and the offended or violent or felony individual would vanish in a quick flash of sunshine. Nobody knew the place they went. [They are later revealed to be safe.] Phrase shortly unfold on the Web, and other people shortly acknowledged, that anger and violence and crime have been unacceptable to the Sleeborans. Due to this fact, these actions shortly subsided, both by means of attrition of the perpetrators or classes realized.
What’s the Sleeboran resolution to humanity’s ills?
The Sleeborans famous 4 essential traits that had triggered their arrival on Earth:
- The rising menace of worldwide warfare and nuclear warfare, and particularly the warfare in Ukraine.
- The unmanaged menace of local weather change, the place Earth was about to succeed in irreversible tipping factors.
- The acute financial inequalities that have been rising with out restraint.
- The proliferation of crime and corruption and normal asshole habits, particularly inside governments, which was making the planet’s first rate individuals depressing with no corresponding profit.
Their Answer to Unequal Wealth
For instance of Sleeboran options, think about wealth inequality. After noting that “a small share of people have the means to buy a $1,000 sensible telephone, whereas these assembling the telephones usually acquired solely pennies in return for an hour of their labor,” a state of affairs they known as “irrational, merciless and immoral,” the Sleeborans did this:
Due to this fact, the rich can be stripped of their belongings and wealth, right down to the extent of a standard way of life. And the poor would all be raised as much as the identical way of life. This way of life can be outlined by the wholesome carrying capability of the planet.
Underneath the principles of capitalism, it was completely regular for an individual to begin a profitable firm, rent 1,000,000 staff, and for the one individual to amass $100 billion utilizing the work of these staff to do it. To the Sleeborans, the notion of utmost wealth like this was abhorrent. Why not as an alternative give $100,000 to every worker? Or decrease costs in order that the $100 billion by no means collected? The entire notion was ridiculous to the Sleeborans and can be dismantled shortly. The period of 300-foot-long yachts and personal jets and 12 mansions on 5 totally different continents was gone ceaselessly beneath the Sleeborans.
The remainder of their options observe related traces.
The Fantasy Tells the Reality
The issue with this fantasy is that it’s true — in a really particular means:
[T]he Sleeborans did the issues that each considerate individual knew needed to be finished. They destroyed the specter of nuclear annihilation. They eradicated all of the assholes who have been ruining society for everybody else. They made the arduous selections on local weather change after which acted impressively. They introduced everybody within the human species as much as the identical way of life, reasonably than tolerating the wonderful inequalities that had been the norm for thus lengthy. They eradicated the hyper wealthy and their absurdities. The world was changing into a significantly better place.
What the reality does this comprises? Each considerate individual is aware of these items must be finished.
Why the approaching collapse? No considerate individual thinks these items might occur. Not within the amount wanted. Not in time.
Again to the Future
We began with air journey and high-speed rail. We’ll finish there as properly.
Within the U.S., what number of miles of high-speed rail can be constructed, past the less-than-a-hundred it already has, by … let’s say, the top of your life? How a lot lower than what’s wanted will that quantity be?
Within the meantime, international warming is dashing up. It’s straightforward to do the mathematics. I’m with the Sleeborans.
