Sure, it will have been good if the headline act had occurred. I’ve been watching the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice hearings on South Africa’s genocide prices in opposition to South Africa. As anticipated South Africa is laying out a compressed model of the devastating case it made in its submitting.
One attention-grabbing wrinkle is on the high of the listening to, the registrar learn into the report a brand new aspect submitted by South Africa, not contained in its 84 web page case, that of an in depth checklist of the “provisional measures” that’s it asking the court docket to impose on Israel. Recall that the type of this submitting was an “Indication of Provisional Measures,” that’s, that the proof of genocide was so overwhelming that the Courtroom ought to impose provisional measures with the intent of halting Israel’s genocidal conduct whereas the case continued on the conventional (time consuming) course. This checklist is complete and effectively thought out, starting from a cessation of formal army and irregular forces motion in opposition to Palestinian, ending conduct designed to trigger bodily and psychological hurt and forestall births, to cease compelled displacement, to offer entry to meals, medical care, gasoline and different requirements of life to preserving proof with respect to genocide and never prohibit entry to fact-finder relating to the sort of proof. That is an approximate recap; I’ll append a transcript of this part when one turns into out there.
Israel doesn’t have any good playing cards to play, not simply with respect to the South Africa genocide case however in its marketing campaign in opposition to Palestinians. It appears to be counting on the truth that nobody has been in a position to cease the slow-motion extermination of Palestinians, and that every one it must do is keep its vicious plan of action. However that form of win is just not going to make Israel safer.
Israel is operating into the appreciable limits on its and US energy, and the ensuing prices. Israel appears unable to realize its said goal of destroying Hamas. Israel has pulled floor forces out of Gaza, in impact confirming that clearing Gaza of Hamas fighters is just not its goal. As we now have recurrently identified, the dearth of meals shipments, restricted water provides. destruction of hospitals, and the flattening of shelter means everybody in Gaza will die in not that lengthy a time within the absence of an intervention. However the Houthi blockade of delivery to and from Israel is damaging not simply the Israeli economic system (see experiences of imminent meals shortages) however world delivery, witness the hissy match by the US and 11 different international locations making an attempt to intimidate the Houthis into backing down. However the Western threats are pure noise-making. It’s not life like for a Western coalition of the prepared to subdue Yemen, notably with its stockpile of weapons to deploy in opposition to any touchdown events. And if they might subdue the Houthis in any other case, they’d have already got completed so.
Israel equally has solely lose-lose decisions so far as Hezbollah in involved. Their sample of tit for tat assaults picked up in severity and a bit in vary, resulting in evacuation of border cities. Israel has dedicated to getting Hezbollah to drag again from the border…with no settlement from Hezbollah to take action and uncertain means to make that occur by drive. Most specialists consider that the Israeli military is so poorly ready that had been it to push into Lebanon, Hezbollah may and certain would occupy northern Israel, probably so far as Galilee. Maybe Israel hopes to drag the US in additional deeply, however it’s not as if it will do any higher with US assist (Scott Ritter has pressured that warfare sport have constantly proven the reverse).
Israel media and statements by official present the nation continues to be working on blood lust and never realism. The nation’s statements up to now counsel that reasonably than making an attempt a dignified response to the intense South Africa prices, Israel, in line with its refusal to file a written reply, appears primed as a substitute within the listening to tomorrow to assault the legitimacy of the court docket and the fees. That will solely serve to additional isolate Israel, even when it performs effectively on home TV. Or maybe is has made a nostril rely and has come to the identical conclusion as Norman Finkelstein, that it’ll prevail as a result of Russia and China won’t vote for the South Africa cost resulting from their very own publicity to related filings (there may be already a case in opposition to Russian lodged with the ICJ). In retaining, CommonDreams posted a brand new piece on Israel’s continued insistence that it’s completely inside its rights to eradicate Palestinians. From the piece:
Two Israeli lawmakers from right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud occasion doubled down Wednesday on calls to destroy or depopulate Gaza, prompting an admonition from the nation’s legal professional normal on the eve of an emergency listening to within the South African-led genocide case in opposition to Israel on the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice.
In an interview with Hakol Baramah radio, Deputy Knesset Speaker Nissim Vaturi mentioned he didn’t remorse his November name for Israel to “cease being humane” and “burn Gaza now.”
“I stand behind my phrases,” Vaturi mentioned, in line withThe Instances of Israel. “It’s higher to burn down buildings reasonably than have troopers harmed. There are not any innocents there.”…
In the meantime, Haaretz reported that Danny Danon, a former United Nations ambassador now serving within the Knesset, mentioned in a Wednesday radio interview that Israel should “not do half a job” in Gaza.
That, Danon mentioned, means “voluntary migration” of Palestinians from Gaza—a euphemism, critics say, for an ethnic cleaning marketing campaign akin to the Nakba, or “disaster,” through which greater than 750,000 Arabs had been forcibly expelled from Palestine throughout the warfare to ascertain the fashionable state of Israel in 1948.
In November, Danon co-authored a Wall Road Journal opinion piece suggesting the ethnic cleaning of a few of Gaza’s inhabitants to Western international locations that might settle for the refugees.
Admittedly, solely one of many two of the officers is asking explicitly for genocide, though as we now have noticed, ethnic cleaning when up to now no nation is prepared to allow the Israel scheme means its persevering with program to make Gaza uninhabitable quantities to the identical factor.
Israel is presumably operating a “What number of divisions does the ICJ have?” calculus. The ICJ is toothless and the UN, which might be the venue for motion, compromised. From a brand new article by CAGE:
The ICJ is unlikely to decide on whether or not Israel is finishing up genocide for a number of years. This week’s listening to is barely to find out whether or not it ought to make an interim order for Israel to halt its offensive and withdraw from Gaza. Even when it had been to take action, the ICJ has no efficient technique of implementing the order save by the use of a decision from the UN Safety Council. The US has vetoed Safety Council resolutions important of Israel at least 89 instances and is unlikely to veer away from its operate as Israel’s political protect. Like Russia in relation to the ICJ ruling on its invasion of Ukraine, the US has itself refused to adjust to ICJ judgments in opposition to it in instances introduced by Nicaragua (1986) and Iran (2018).
In latest many years, we now have witnessed the demise of the so referred to as “guidelines based mostly worldwide order“ as a result of the UN Safety Council has did not successfully intervene to forestall acts of genocide and warfare crimes in Bosnia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and in opposition to the Uyghurs in China. Quite the opposite, the Safety Council itself voted to impose genocidal sanctions on Iraq inflicting the deaths of roughly half 1,000,000 youngsters, a worth deemed ‘value paying’ by then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Extra just lately, worldwide establishments have failed to carry senior political figures reminiscent of Dick Cheney, Tony Blair, and George Bush, the architects of those invasions, accountable, elevating critical questions on their credibility. Too usually they serve to uphold Western domination reasonably than to ship justice.
Once more in idea, a preliminary ruling by the ICJ in opposition to Israel may pave the best way for prison instances within the Worldwide Felony Courtroom. It’s over my pay grade as to who would have the standing to file them (correction: refer instances, the ICC is a prison court docket and so doesn’t take up filings by impartial events). However as we now have seen with the ruling in opposition to Putin, key international locations, together with the US, don’t acknowledge the authority of the ICC. So the impact even of (seemingly unlikely) ICC rulings in opposition to key Israeli leaders could be to restrict there journey.
Might a ruling for South Africa give new grounds for reversing anti-BDS legal guidelines within the US? For difficult the very aggressive campaigns in opposition to exhibits of help for Palestinians within the US? It could be the most important sensible impact of a ruling for South Africa could be to additional undermine Israel’s legitimacy within the US. However what number of Palestinian lives would that save?
Replace, 11:10 AM: I missed an extra instance of Israel officers defying the ICJ to Do One thing about their genocide operation. This one is arguably necessary because it’s a member of the federal government, and never a legislator:
Many People nonetheless consider the aim of the Israeli warfare in Gaza is to “destroy Hamas”: as a result of that is what US media repeated from Israel.
However in Hebrew, Israeli officers daily admit the actual objective: to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians so Israel can take the land: https://t.co/PA8QteY4oL
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 10, 2024
