2:00PM Water Cooler 2/6/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Night Grosbeak (sort 2), Sattley; Sierra Nevada Discipline Campus, California, United States. “Background Sounds: Yuba River; Species Sound: frequent; Breeding Standing: not territorial, not breeding?; Particular Music Sort: daybreak?”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Riot)

“‘Disenfranchisement and Chaos’: The Supreme Court docket Hears Pivotal Case on Whether or not Trump Is Eligible to Run for President” [Pro Publica]. “The 14th Modification bans insurrectionists from serving as a ‘Senator or Representatives in Congress,’ ‘electors of President and Vice President,’ or in ‘any workplace, civil or army, beneath america, or beneath any State.’ There is no such thing as a direct point out of the presidency. It applies to anybody who took the oath of workplace to defend the Structure, together with anybody who was “an officer of america.” One camp of authorized students argues that it will be nonsensical and inconsistent with the intent of those that drafted the modification to say that it excluded the presidency…. Different students say the omission of the presidency from the 14th Modification is so evident that it may be learn as an intentional resolution. ‘It’s very unusual to call the Senate and Home however not the president,’ stated Derek Muller, a Notre Dame regulation professor, characterizing this place. ‘If you happen to listing a bunch of issues and also you omit one factor, you in all probability did it on function.’” And: “In an amicus transient within the Trump v. Anderson case, Hasen, Ohio State regulation professor Ned Foley and longtime Republican election lawyer Ben Ginsberg lay out a chilling state of affairs wherein the court docket deferred to Congress [via Section Five] on the query of Trump’s eligibility. If Trump had been to win the presidential election and Democrats had been to win management of Congress, then these Democratic lawmakers might, in principle, vote to disqualify Trump in January 2025 in the event that they consider he engaged in revolt, as many Democrats have stated they do. ‘What would it not imply for a Democratic Congress to say, ‘Donald Trump can’t serve though he gained?” Hasen stated. ‘To me, that’s a recipe for potential political violence.’” • So preserve Trump off the poll?

“Right here’s how 2 sentences within the Structure rose from obscurity to ensnare Donald Trump” [Associated Press]. “In the summertime of 2020, Gerard Magliocca, like many throughout the coronavirus pandemic, discovered himself caught inside with time on his arms. A regulation professor at Indiana College, Magliocca emailed with one other professor, who was writing a ebook about neglected components of the Structure’s 14th Modification. He determined he would analysis the historical past of two long-neglected sentences within the post-Civil Conflict addition that prohibit those that ‘engaged in revolt or insurrection’ from holding workplace. Magliocca posted a replica of his analysis — which he believed was the primary regulation journal article ever written about Part 3 of the 14th Modification — on-line in mid-December of 2020, then revised and re-posted it on Dec. 29. Eight days later, President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol to forestall the certification of his loss to Joe Biden. Magliocca watched as Republicans equivalent to Sens. Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney described the assault as an ‘revolt.’ That night time, Magliocca composed a fast submit on a authorized weblog: ‘Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification,’ he wrote, ‘may apply to President Trump.’… As soon as she had dried her tears after watching rioters storm the Capitol, Norma Anderson sat down with one of many a number of copies of the Structure she retains round her home within the Denver suburbs and reread the 14th Modification. ‘I made the connection,’ Anderson, now 91, stated in an interview. Anderson is a former Republican chief of Colorado’s Common Meeting and state Senate, and finally would change into the lead plaintiff within the case now earlier than the Supreme Court docket… Anderson didn’t but have the prospect to unfold the phrase past her personal circle, however within the days after Jan. 6, because of students equivalent to Magliocca and the College of Maryland regulation professor whose ebook venture had impressed him, Mark Graber, Part 3 began its sluggish emergence from obscurity…. It took months earlier than the primary point out of Part 3 in a public doc. Free Speech For Individuals, a Massachusetts-based liberal nonprofit, despatched letters to high election officers in all 50 states in June 2021, warning them to not place Trump on the poll ought to he run once more in 2024 as a result of he had violated the supply.” • I’m not 100% assured within the timeline (or the mental historical past) My recollection — granted, the occasions had been 4 years in the past — was that Democrats started framing the Capitol riot as an revolt quickly; actually inside every week of the occasion; maybe the Transition Integrity* Undertaking, which gamed out the 2020 election, had revolt as one risk, so the thought was “within the air”? (The report contemplates Trump invoking the “Riot Act,” apparently.) Readers? NOTE * The participant listing is fairly superb. “By no means eat at a spot referred to as ‘Mother’s.’”

The Constitutional Order (Invasion)

“Goofy ‘God’s Military’ convoy on Texas border exhibits Trump’s MAGA motion is only one lengthy con” [USA Today]. Opinion. “A much-ballyhooed convoy of MAGA patriots descended on a city close to the southern border, ostensibly prepared to guard America from what right-wing politicians like Gov. Greg Abbott cynically, dangerously and falsely name ‘an invasion.’ The ‘God’s Military’ convoy was presupposed to be a mighty pressure of 700,000 or extra individuals from each nook of America. It wound up being perhaps a pair hundred automobiles parked at a rural ranch in Quemado, Texas – mainly a Trump rally with out a Trump, however with loads of hucksters promoting MAGA merch and grifting the simply grifted. Some truly visited the border in close by Eagle Cross, Texas, and had been shocked to not witness the invasion they’d been promised. Convoy-goer Misty Gregory instructed MSNBC: ‘It’s not what I anticipated, however then once more I don’t know what I anticipated. I can inform you it’s not as unhealthy as what I assumed, in order that’s form of eye-opening in itself.’” Ah! A Trump-supporting Bayesian! No matter this convoy is, it’s not “a mass-based occasion of dedicated nationalist militants” (to cite Robert Paxton).

Biden Administration

Hmm:

We have reached an settlement on a bipartisan nationwide safety deal that features the hardest and fairest set of border reforms in a long time.

For too lengthy, going again a long time, the immigration system has been damaged.

Here is how we begin to repair it. pic.twitter.com/pdXK0y9rNg

— President Biden (@POTUS) February 6, 2024

So the labor market is protected, then?

Our Famously Free Press

Good. O’Keefe was at all times a creep:

He falsely accused an harmless, hard-working postal employee of voter fraud. The postal employee sued his mendacity ass. This assertion at this time is a part of the settlement. pic.twitter.com/7Kk65EIHyr

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 5, 2024

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“Trump shouldn’t be immune from prosecution in his 2020 election interference case, US appeals court docket says” [Associated Press]. “A federal appeals panel dominated Tuesday that Donald Trump can face trial on prices that he plotted to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election, sharply rejecting the previous president’s claims that he’s immune from prosecution whereas setting the stage for extra challenges that might additional delay the case. The ruling is important not just for its stark repudiation of Trump’s novel immunity claims but in addition as a result of it breathes life again right into a landmark prosecution that had been successfully frozen for weeks because the court docket thought-about the enchantment. But the one-month hole between when the court docket heard arguments and issued its ruling has already created uncertainty concerning the timing of a trial in a calendar-jammed election 12 months, with the choose overseeing the case final week canceling the preliminary March 4 date. Trump’s workforce vowed to enchantment, which might postpones the case by weeks or months — significantly if the Supreme Court docket agrees to take it up. The judges gave Trump every week to ask the Supreme Court docket to get entangled.” And: “‘Presidential immunity in opposition to federal indictment would imply that, as to the President, the Congress couldn’t legislate, the Government couldn’t prosecute and the Judiciary couldn’t assessment. We can not settle for that the workplace of the Presidency locations its former occupants above the regulation forever thereafter,’ the judges wrote.”

* * *

“Standard knowledge stated Trump couldn’t win in 2016. This historian’s ‘keys’ stated he would. What are these keys telling us at this time?” [Morningstar]. “Biden holds an edge this November based mostly on American College professor Allan Lichtman’s evaluation of 13 historic predictors [see here]. Latest polling information has been very promising for Donald Trump. However with 9 months nonetheless to go within the presidential race, American College professor Allan Lichtman says Joe Biden holds an edge in accordance with the historic ‘keys’ to victory. For now, anyway. 5 of the 13 historic predictors of victory favor Biden, whereas three favor Trump, and the remaining are nonetheless up for grabs, Lichtman instructed MarketWatch in an interview.” Lichtman has type: “At one notable second in current historical past, the ‘keys’ predicted Donald Trump’s victory in November 2016 – in opposition to all the traditional knowledge and most polling.” And: “Probably the most fascinating elements of those so-called keys to the White Home is that they provide you an intriguing view of the battleground for the election. An eruption of main social unrest (equivalent to in 1968 or 2020) could be a destructive for Biden (Key No. 8). So could be a powerful third-party marketing campaign, as in, say, 1980 (John Anderson), 2000 (Ralph Nader) and 2016 (Jill Stein). So could be a serious scandal hitting the administration (Key No. 9).” • Lichtman expects to make a name in August. Notice that the keys at present up for grabs (“social unrest”, “third occasion”, “scandal”) all fall into the volatility bucket, in contrast to (say), “an incumbent operating for re-election (Key No. 3).”

“The Political Perils of Democrats’ Rose-Coloured Glasses” [Stanley Greenberg, The American Prospect]. “The elite cheer that inflation has come down to three.5 p.c is itself the issue. Why don’t voters need to thank President Biden and embrace the economists who gained the talk? However what does 3.5 p.c imply? It signifies that the speed of improve in costs remains to be a lot larger than it was beneath prior presidents. Costs haven’t gone down. Costs are nonetheless 17 p.c larger than earlier than the pandemic and 20 p.c larger for a basket of groceries…. Gallup launched its month-to-month financial confidence ballot, with the headline ‘Financial Temper Improves, however Inflation Nonetheless Vexing Individuals.’ It’s the Democrats who’re accountable for the development. However the proportion who price the economic system as ‘poor’ is 45 p.c—barely modified from the earlier month. And critically, there was no change within the 63 p.c who suppose “excessive costs pose a extreme or average monetary hardship.’ Krugman and others simply ignore the truth that the College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment Index is 20 factors decrease than when Trump was president. The Gallup ballot experiences its findings beneath the title ‘Financial Confidence Improves to Highest Stage in Two Years, however Nonetheless Low.’ This inflationary interval, produced by the pandemic and the Ukraine struggle, has left the typical household exhausted after 30 months of protecting the month-to-month payments. Proper now, in each nation the place I have a look at surveys, excessive costs are the highest drawback.” • Dunno if I settle for that clarification for “this inflationary interval.” Costs go up as a result of corporations increase them. A diametrically opposed view–

“Biden is quietly narrowing the race in opposition to Trump, however challenges lie forward” [The Hill]. “Proof is starting to emerge that Biden has on the very least, stabilized the race and that the ‘Trump surge’ has cooled off. Biden seems to have both narrowed Trump’s lead, and even taken the lead in no less than some important swing states, together with Pennsylvania, the place Biden holds a 1 level lead (43 p.c to 42 p.c), per Franklin & Marshall Faculty, and Wisconsin, the place Fox Information polling exhibits a digital tie. Likewise, a nationwide Quinnipiac ballot exhibits President Biden main by 6 factors (50 p.c to 44 p.c). Whereas actually an outlier, when all of those polls are netted out, it’s clear that, whereas Trump doubtless has a slim lead nationally and in a handful of swing states, Biden could make a reputable argument that the race is significantly narrower than just some months in the past. Why is that this occurring? There are a number of causes. First, the economic system continues to enhance with the Worldwide Financial Fund projecting a ‘smooth touchdown’ final week. Additional, inflation continues to average, the job market stays sturdy — the nation added 353,000 jobs final month — and the excellent news concerning the economic system is starting to settle in amongst voters. In a serious win for the Biden administration, The College of Michigan’s client sentiment index reported shoppers are 27 p.c extra optimistic concerning the ‘quick run’ outlook for enterprise situations and 14 p.c extra optimistic about their funds. That is due, in main half, to wage will increase starting to outpace inflation, easing the burden on on a regular basis Individuals.” • “27 p.c extra” shouldn’t be an absolute quantity….

“President Biden’s job approval ranking is abysmal. Right here’s why he may beat Trump anyway” [Jonah Goldberg, Los Angeles Times]. “For many years, profitable presidential and congressional candidates adopted the rule that you just swing to your occasion’s liberal or conservative base within the major election after which tack again to the middle within the basic election. Barack Obama largely ignored that rule, and Trump actually ignored it, with out repercussions. And most Home and Senate candidates now ignore that rule. That’s as a result of the voters has sorted to the purpose the place the actual problem to incumbency is normally in primaries, not generals. Because of this, candidates more and more depend on turning out their base moderately than persuading voters within the center. This factors to at least one motive approval rankings might not matter as a lot anymore. In a polarized voters, most individuals vote in opposition to the opposite occasion greater than they vote for their very own. A current Quinnipiac College ballot discovered that amongst voters who dislike each candidates, Biden has a commanding 13-point lead. If that holds, it could possibly be all of the president wants.”

“Biden torched for claiming that he lately met with useless former President of France: ‘Not a wholesome signal’” [FOX]. “Biden instructed an viewers in Las Vegas on Sunday a couple of assembly he had with French President Emmanuel Macron throughout a G7 assembly in England after he had already assumed the presidency. ‘I sat down and I stated, ‘America’s again,” Biden recalled. ‘And Mitterrand from Germany – I imply from France – checked out me and stated…’… François Mitterrand was France’s president between 1981 and 1995. He died in 1996. Biden appeared to path off earlier than amassing his ideas to complete the sentence: ‘Nicely, how lengthy are you again for?’” • Mitterrand’s English is remarkably idiomatic….

* * *

Talking of the youth vote:

In 2021 that modified

51% of deaths occurred in age 75
41% in 45-74
7% in 18-44 pic.twitter.com/GlWv2mWlaw

— Gregory Travis. Make colleges #DavosSafe (@greg_travis) February 5, 2024

* * *

Straw within the wind?

NOW – Jesse Ventura Endorses Robert F. Kennedy Jr for President in Tucson, AZ pic.twitter.com/QzPXouwyI4

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) February 6, 2024

* * *

NV: “Biden warns of a ‘nightmare’ future for the nation if Trump ought to win once more, and lists the reason why” [Associated Press]. “In Tuesday’s Nevada Democratic presidential major, Biden faces solely token opposition from creator Marianne Williamson and some comparatively unknown challengers [Dean Phillips]. He gained Nevada in November 2020 by fewer than 3 proportion factors. However he got here to Nevada to evoke voters for the autumn marketing campaign as effectively…. The state recognized largely for its on line casino and hospitality industries is synonymous with split-ticket, hard-to-predict outcomes. It has a transient, working-class inhabitants and huge Latino, Filipino and Chinese language American and Black communities . Nevada has a stark rural-urban divide, with greater than 88% of energetic registered voters — and far of its political energy — within the two most populous counties, which embody the Las Vegas and Reno metro areas…. However early indicators present Biden might have extra floor to make up than in previous races. Voters are largely dissatisfied with the doubtless Biden-Trump rematch. A New York Occasions/Siena ballot from November put Biden’s approval ranking at 36% in Nevada…. Dan Lee, an affiliate professor of political science on the College of Nevada, Las Vegas, stated that for Biden, ‘the map says he has to carry on to Nevada.’”

NV: “In Las Vegas, Biden Promotes Guarantees Saved to Black and Hispanic Voters” [New York Times]. “Nevada will maintain its Democratic major on Tuesday, the occasion’s second official nominating contest after South Carolina. However Mr. Biden faces scant opposition right here. One long-shot challenger, Consultant Dean Phillips of Minnesota — who completed third in South Carolina on Saturday, behind the self-help creator Marianne Williamson — won’t even be on the poll. As an alternative, Mr. Biden made his journey on Sunday with a watch to the final election. Though Nevada has voted for Democrats in each presidential election since 2008, together with for Mr. Biden in 2020, it stays a swing state with a lately elected Republican governor. In November, a New York Occasions/Siena ballot discovered that Mr. Biden was trailing Mr. Trump by 10 factors in Nevada.”

NV: “Why Nevada Has Two Dueling GOP Nominating Contests This Week” [Slate]. “This week, it’s Nevada Republicans’ flip to decide on their occasion’s presidential nominee. The method is straightforward. On Tuesday, they go to the polls and vote for a candidate. Oh, besides the candidate most of them need, Donald Trump, won’t be on the poll, which has led to mass confusion. Nikki Haley will probably be on the poll, although. So will ‘not one of the above.’ Oh, and there are not any delegates at stake on this major. To have their votes matter, Nevada Republicans should take part in Thursday’s party-run caucus, wherein Trump will probably be an choice however Haley gained’t.” • Sounds worse than Iowa 2000!

* * *

“The states that matter in 2024” [ Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call]. “This column is concerning the 9 states that in November will resolve (1) the presidential contest, (2) the struggle for the Senate, and (3) the struggle for management of the Home of Representatives…. Three Nice Lakes states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and three Southern/Sunbelt toss-ups (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada) are prone to choose the subsequent president of america. Donald Trump carried 5 of the six states in 2016 (shedding solely Nevada), whereas Joe Biden carried all six 4 years later. The margins in all these states, in each 2016 and 2020, had been extraordinarily slim, and most nonpartisan handicappers count on they are going to be shut once more this November. Two different states are value watching however aren’t prone to be as essential: New Hampshire (carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020) and North Carolina (carried by Trump twice). Two states that divide their Electoral Faculty votes by congressional district (Maine and Nebraska) advantage your consideration, as effectively. However none of these states come near being as decisive because the Massive Six.” • Additionally the Senate and the Home. It might be good authorities remained divided…

Spook Nation

“Homeland Safety Cited Inaccurate Allegation to Censor New York Occasions Journalist” [RealClearInvestigations]. “Because the 2020 Election Day rely dragged on into the subsequent morning within the essential swing state of Wisconsin, the New York Occasions marketing campaign reporter Reid Epstein reported a hiccup at 4:52 a.m.: ‘Inexperienced Bay’s absentee poll outcomes are being delayed as a result of one of many vote-counting machines ran out of ink and an elections official needed to return to Metropolis Corridor to get extra.’ Eight minutes later Epstein despatched a follow-up tweet giving the all-clear: ‘Clerk has returned with printer ink!’ This tiny drama from Wednesday, Nov. 4, could be misplaced to historical past however for the deep consternation it ignited amongst influential members of the federal government and tech trade. Particulars uncovered within the Twitter Recordsdata and revealed right here for the primary time present that Epstein’s tweet prompted instant and largely profitable speech suppression efforts by the Division of Homeland Safety and others who had been intent on undermining any information or claims which may probably be used to query the integrity of the 2020 election…. Epstein’s tweet set off instant alarm bells in Wisconsin and Washington, D.C. At 5:11 a.m., 19 minutes after Epstein’s first tweet, an election clerk from one other a part of the state, Rachel Rodriguez, disputed the Occasions’ reporting on Twitter: ‘I’m very aware of the poll scanners Inexperienced Bay makes use of,” wrote Rodriguez. ‘There’s no ink concerned.’ 4 minutes later, at 5:15 a.m., the official Twitter account of the Wisconsin Elections Fee retweeted Rodriguez’s submit commenting, ‘Rachel is appropriate.’ Besides she was not. Though most of Inexperienced Bay’s voting machines didn’t use ink – the DS200, the first vote-counting machine, relied on thermal tape – that 12 months, there was one other machine concerned. Native officers, in expectation of upper turnout for the heated presidential race and newly eased guidelines regarding absentee ballots, opted to moreover use the DS450, a high-speed tabulator that prints outcomes by means of an exterior ink-jet printer.” Nonetheless: “CIS rapidly elevated the tweet in a ‘Misinformation Report’ despatched to officers on the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company (CISA), the DHS sub-agency with a concentrate on policing social media. Brian Scully, a DHS official with CISA who then led a activity pressure on ‘countering international affect,’ connected a screenshot of the Epstein tweet and despatched it to Twitter together with a notice that claimed the ‘tweet alleges tabulation machine ran out of ink which brought on delay in counting absentee ballots – there isn’t any ink concerned in tabulation machine (Inexperienced Bay, WI).’” • Clowns with hairtrigger bother.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Sirota’s proper:

actually wild that so many snug coastal liberals appear to consider that the simmering rage of an economically immiserated working class will probably be placated by sappy odes to democracy orated over the West Wing theme music

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) February 6, 2024

However dance with the one which brung ya!

* * *

Shot:

https://t.co/6gCvVIbZ3G pic.twitter.com/ghvmfwTVqj

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) February 6, 2024

Chaser:

Watching Democrats in blue run cities/states give us coverage and laws they instructed us to be afraid Republicans would cross. It is a direct assault on protesters and creating extra mass surveillance. https://t.co/PlpzZGQcKR

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) February 6, 2024

* * *

“‘A Strategic Mistake on the A part of My Celebration’: A Prime Dem Speaks Out on the Border” [Politico]. Rep. Veronica Escobar: “That is the hardest home coverage situation that we face at this time.” • Not, after all, Covid, which has killed 1,000,000 individuals and rising.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“No Labels information DOJ criticism about teams boycotting its 2024 presidential poll entry effort” [CBS]. From January: “‘We’ve got set forth substantial proof and allege that based mostly on that proof, there’s a group of activists and artists [(!!)] and occasion officers who’ve participated in alleged unlawful conspiracy to make use of intimidation, harassment and worry in opposition to representatives of no labels, its donors and as potential candidates, [No Labels leader and lawyer Dan Webb] stated. The political group stated within the 11-page criticism that it’s ‘one factor to oppose candidates who’re operating; it’s one other to make use of intimidation to forestall them from even getting in entrance of the voters.’…. One of many incidents talked about within the criticism alleges the previous finance director for the Democratic Celebration and a consultant of the Lincoln Undertaking Melissa Moss allegedly threatened the ‘monetary future’ of No Labels co-founder and board member Holly Web page. ‘You don’t have any thought of the forces aligned in opposition to you. You’ll by no means be capable of work in Democratic politics once more,’ the letter claims Moss instructed Web page.” Six methods from Sunday… Extra: “The criticism additionally cites Matt Bennett, co-founder the center-left suppose tank Third Manner, alleging he hosted conferences with a number of Home and Senate chiefs of employees to boost considerations about No Labels’ effort by calling it a ‘harmful and unhealthy thought.’” Tsk! Extra: “In one other assembly with neo-conservative Invoice Kristol and Third Manner supporters, No Labels claims that Bennett ‘inspired’ contributors “to establish any No Labels employees, donors, distributors and potential candidates to strain them into withdrawing their help and/and even their relationship with No Labels.’” • All that is normal working process for Democrats since no less than 2000 (Nader); see Taibbi right here for an excellent rant. Readers can even recall the Flexians on the DCCC, which blacklisted consultants and operatives working “insurgents.” I can’t discover a copy of the criticism — readers? — however absent a principle of the case (RICO?), I’m inclined to file this story beneath “politics ain’t beanbag.”

* * *

“Are Individuals Headed Towards a Civil Conflict?” [The American Conservative]. “Such questions are dropped at thoughts by a ebook revealed again in 1998, Kevin Phillips’ The Cousins’ Wars: Faith, Politics, and the Triumph of Anglo-America. That quantity connects three conflicts, the impacts of which had been felt strongly on each side of the Atlantic: the English Civil Conflict of the seventeenth century, the American Revolution of the 18th century, and the American Civil Conflict of the nineteenth century…. The strict motif of The Cousins’ Wars is…wars. As he wrote, the three wars in his chronicle have been ‘the central staircase’ of Anglo-American historical past. Lest anybody miss his level, he added, ‘Bloodshed…is to lasting electoral preparations what carbon has been to metal.’ The purpose: Typically conflicts are so deep that they merely can’t be resolved by means of peaceful means.” And: “As Phillips writes, historical past shouldn’t be made by class, it’s made by conflict. That’s, the battle of 1 group in opposition to one other, which may embody wealthy in opposition to wealthy and poor in opposition to poor.” Class is “conflict,” ffs. And: “Will we, in truth, have a fourth Cousins’ Conflict? To make certain, each side, Purple and Blue, cite a protracted prepare of abuses, and for sure we have now an upcoming loopy prepare of elections and the inevitable disputes. But the Anglo-Saxons had been at all times good at higher angel-ing; they may have fought just like the dickens, however in the long run they stopped effectively in need of outright annihilation and everlasting vendettas. So let’s pray that post-WASP America can summon up the identical spirit of pragmatism, updating the Puritan dream of a metropolis upon a hill with a brand new imaginative and prescient: two cities upon the hill.” • Hmm.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Immune Dysregulation

“Lots of of exposures potential from native measles case that traveled by means of busy regional airport” [WHIO]. “On Monday, the Ohio Division of Well being introduced the potential for measles publicity on the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Worldwide Airport…. The case was initially recognized in a baby who was evaluated at Dayton Kids’s Hospital in the primary campus Emergency Division on Jan. 29 and Jan. 31. ‘In the course of the time of publicity the place the person was being evaluated, there have been 232 different kids, they’re being evaluated as effectively,’ Medical Director Becky Thomas, Public Well being – Dayton and Montgomery County stated…. Thomas stated the shortage of vaccinations [thanks, Junior] for the reason that pandemic coupled with touring, has created current measles outbreaks within the nation, when it was as soon as thought-about to be eradicated nationwide in 2000.” • However why now? ‘Tis a thriller! (If Yves is correct and Boeing is certainly being pillaged and burned liquidated, maybe that’s an excellent factor; much less air journey means much less an infection, as Taleb identified, one month into the pandemic.

Minimizers, chanting in refrain:

The highway to unwell well being is paved with calm.

2018: “Is it a chilly, flu, or RSV? The signs to look at for.”

2021: “Is it a chilly, flu, RSV, or COVID? The signs to look at for.”

2024: “Is it a chilly, flu, RSV, COVID, measles, pertussis, or tuberculosis? The signs to look at for.”

— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) February 5, 2024

Denial and Cope

Whereof one can not communicate, thereof one have to be silent:

And likewise tells you precisely that Covid has *not* been normalised. Fairly the other, in truth – if Covid actually had been normalised, the phrase would, by definition, not be taboo. Not mentioning the phrase tells me how a lot the illness remains to be thought-about distinctive. https://t.co/RrDk4atdex

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) February 6, 2024

Science Is Popping

“Viral afterlife: SARS-CoV-2 as a reservoir of immunomimetic peptides that reassemble into proinflammatory supramolecular complexes” [PNAS]. From the Summary: “At current, there are not any standards to guage whether or not a coronavirus may cause pandemics with extreme irritation or simply frequent colds. We offer a potential reply by contemplating the virus not solely as an infectious agent however as a reservoir of replicated peptide motifs that aren’t themselves pathogen related molecular patterns (PAMPs) that particularly bind to sample recognition receptors however are nonetheless able to drastic immune amplification by way of self-assembly with PAMPs. We present proof that viral peptide fragments from SARS-CoV-2 however not innocent coronavirus homologs can ‘reassemble’ with dsRNA right into a type of proinflammatory nanocrystalline condensed matter, leading to cooperative, multivalent immune recognition and grossly amplified inflammatory responses.” And: “Outcomes introduced right here point out that there exist intrinsically proinflammatory sequences discovered within the SARS-CoV-2 proteome that aren’t present in frequent chilly coronavirus homologs, sequences that strongly activate immune responses in a broad vary of cell and tissue sorts related to illness states in a number of programs.” • Maybe a Mind Belief member will remark! Right here is the press launch–

“Viral protein fragments might unlock thriller behind critical COVID-19 outcomes” (press launch) [Eurekalert]. And the deck: “‘Zombie’ virus fragments proceed to trigger irritation after the virus is destroyed.” Extra: “Utilizing a man-made intelligence system they developed, the examine authors scanned the whole assortment of proteins produced by SARS-CoV-2 after which carried out an exhaustive collection of validation experiments. The scientists discovered that sure viral protein fragments, generated after the SARS-CoV-2 virus is damaged down into items, can mimic a key part of the physique’s equipment for amplifying immune indicators. Their discoveries counsel that among the most critical COVID-19 outcomes may result from these fragments overstimulating the immune system, thereby inflicting rampant irritation in extensively completely different contexts equivalent to cytokine storms and deadly blood coagulation…. ‘We noticed that the assorted types of particles from the destroyed virus can reassemble into these biologically energetic ‘zombie’ complexes,” Wong stated. ‘It’s attention-grabbing that the human peptide being imitated by the viral fragments has been implicated in rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and lupus, and that completely different elements of COVID-19 are paying homage to these autoimmune situations….” • The press launch is written in English, and it’s value a sluggish and cautious learn. One other abstract–

“”Zombie” COVID particles could also be accountable for deadly illness” [The New Atlas]. “A formidable new examine led by researchers from UCLA is providing a novel speculation to clarify SARS-CoV-2 severity. Utilizing an AI-driven machine-learning system the researchers found SARS-CoV-2 is damaged down into fragments in a human physique, and this viral particles can uniquely resemble endogenous peptides that overstimulate the immune system. This will play a big position within the unusual variable severity of illness from individual to individual. ‘The textbooks inform us that after the virus is destroyed, the sick host ‘wins,’ and completely different items of virus can be utilized to coach the immune system for future recognition,’ says corresponding creator Gerald Wong. However the story of a virus isn’t precisely so simple as that. After a virus is neutralized by the immune system it’s quickly damaged down, or dissolved, into tiny fragments. It has usually been assumed this stage of viral degradation was innocuous, however current analysis has urged a few of these smaller viral fragments might set off innate immune responses that account for extreme illness related to hyper irritation.” • Price a learn too!

Elite Maleficence

“Rampant COVID Poses New Challenges within the Fifth 12 months of the Pandemic” [Scientific American]. “What’s it like emotionally to be so deep in attempting to know and reply to the pandemic? It’s fairly unbelievable. I imply, I can’t consider we’re getting into 12 months 5 of COVID. There are some large psychological well being impacts, globally, that we’re not coping with. I’m coping with my very own, which I’m solely now beginning to mirror upon. I didn’t give it an opportunity—I didn’t have the chance to offer time to it—however now I’m truly taking a while as a result of this isn’t regular. The COVID pandemic was not regular. This quantity of dying shouldn’t be regular. It didn’t should be this fashion.”• Concept: Cease recommending insurance policies that infect individuals–

“Up to date WHO COVID prevention steerage might endanger moderately than shield, some consultants say” [Center for Disease Research and Policy]. Appears like John Conly, droplet goon, nonetheless controls WHO:

The World Well being Group’s (WHO’s) newly up to date COVID-19 prevention and management tips purport to guard healthcare employees, sufferers, and the group, however some consultants say they could encourage dangerous habits by propagating long-disproven concepts about how viruses unfold. “I believe they put healthcare employees and sufferers and the group at vital threat,” stated Lisa Brosseau, ScD, CIH, an skilled on respiratory safety and infectious ailments and a CIDRAP analysis advisor. One of many predominant issues, stated Raina Macintyre, MBBS, PhD, professor and head of the biosecurity program on the Kirby Institute in Sydney, Australia, is that the doc doesn’t incorporate most of the classes discovered throughout the pandemic—equivalent to the key position of COVID-19 unfold amongst individuals with no signs. “The rules counsel utilizing signs to display screen individuals,” she stated by way of electronic mail. “That is seen in well being tips in lots of international locations—emphasis on signs (‘put on a masks for those who really feel unwell’), after we know a considerable proportion of transmission is asymptomatic, which is a serious rationale for common masking in high-transmission settings.” Equally, David Michaels, PhD, MPH, an epidemiologist and professor at George Washington College Faculty of Public Well being and a former administrator on the US Occupational Security and Well being Administration (OSHA), stated the rules don’t straight tackle the modes of COVID-19 transmission. “I used to be very disenchanted,” he instructed CIDRAP Information, referring to the WHO’s adherence to what he calls “droplet dogma,’” or the misguided perception that SARS-CoV-2 spreads primarily by means of droplets moderately than aerosols. “It hasn’t totally acknowledged the idea that this novel coronavirus is airborne.”

4 years in, and right here we’re. WHO’s scientists remind me of these good Germans who simply couldn’t perceive the place all that smoke was coming from. Clearly, WHO ought to by no means be entrusted with something, and that features their valuable pandemic treaty, and if the wingers kill that off, good for them.

* * *

I hate not solely the compliance, however the complicity that follows the compliance:

THIS is what ‘residing with the virus’ actually means. It means people masking the impression of infections to keep up their compliance with the social norm of the pandemic being over. https://t.co/V1a9fHPZhw

— Henry Madison (@RageSheen) February 2, 2024

Cf. Luke 17:1-2.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at this time; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] Sure, up, however we’ll need to wait till subsequent week to see if there are backward revisions. I’d be extra comfortably if some positivity figures had been up, too. Verily information, FWIW, additionally suggests a rise:

[2] Biobot information suggests an increase within the Northeast. MRWA information doesn’t counsel that:

I additionally tried Verily’s regional information and CDC’s mapm however I wasn’t assured I used to be seeing a sign in both.

[3] “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we have now as a proxy for Covid an infection total.

[5] Lower for the town aligns with wastewater information.

[6] “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] -0.7%. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

[8] Lambert right here: Proportion and absolute numbers down.

[9] Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

Stats Watch

Financial Optimism: “United States Financial Optimism Index” [Trading Economics]. “The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Financial Optimism Index within the US fell to 44 in February 2024 from 44.7 in January, effectively beneath forecasts of 47.2. The Private Monetary Outlook, a measure of how Individuals really feel about their very own funds within the subsequent six months, dropped to 53.4 from 55 and confidence in Federal Financial Insurance policies, which measures views on the effectiveness of presidency financial insurance policies, declined to 39 from 39.8. Alternatively, the Six-Month Financial Outlook, which measures how shoppers understand the economic system’s prospects within the subsequent six months, improved to 39.6 from 39.3 in January. In the meantime, optimism amongst buyers slid 10.2% to 49.3 whereas it gained amongst non-investors by 5.1% to 41.3.”

Actual Property: “Lease Expirations and CRE Property Efficiency” (PDF) [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston]. “Total, [Commercial Real Estate (CRE)] lease expirations throughout the pandemic have to this point had solely modestly bigger results on occupancy or earnings in contrast with the interval earlier than the COVID-19 outbreak. Nonetheless, for workplace properties, the expected impact of lease expirations on occupancy elevated by about one-half throughout the pandemic, and the expected impact on NOI rose by about one-third…. These results differ considerably throughout localities…. Relative to international systemically vital banks (G-SIBs) and nonbank CRE lenders, regional and group banks have decrease concentrations of workplace lending in CBDs and areas with a better shift to distant work.” • Hmm. Maybe actual property experts within the readership can remark.

The Bezzle: “Actual identification of Bitcoin founder ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’ might FINALLY be revealed in court docket…and will unlock £36billion fortune” [The Sun]. “A UK court docket will now resolve if Craig Wright, 54, is the mysterious, nameless crypto-king who disappeared from the web over a decade in the past…. For years now, Wright has unsuccessfully claimed to be the legendary Nakamoto and has dragged numerous naysayers by means of the courts in an try to be legally recognised as Bitcoin’s creator… Wright has additionally failed to supply the non-public keys — a safe code consisting of a hexadecimal string of numbers and letters — that will lastly unlock the 1.1million Bitcoins mined by Nakamoto. He instructed a Norwegian court docket in 2022 that he had destroyed the pc exhausting drive that held the keys.” • Wait, what?

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 73 Greed (earlier shut: 73 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 74 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 6 at 2:26:21 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Employers need to fireplace employees with out getting shamed on TikTok” [Bloomberg]. “Movies of disastrous layoffs accumulating on TikTok are prompting firms to hunt assist in delivering the unhealthy information. Extra individuals are sharing intimate particulars and recordings from office conversations that used to transpire behind closed doorways. TikToks about getting laid off at the moment are routinely dissected in public — from CEOs’ mea culpa memos to awkwardly timed bulletins and the exact intonation utilized by human sources managers. Concern of social-media backlash has executives, particularly from smaller tech corporations that don’t have huge HR operations, in search of recommendation on how one can lay individuals off with out it blowing up of their faces… Whereas the general jobs market information stays sturdy, huge job cuts are nonetheless displaying up in a slew of industries to start out the 12 months, most notably in tech, the place a number of of America’s largest employers are nixing a whole lot or 1000’s of positions. United Parcel Service Inc. additionally introduced final week that it’s going to slash 12,000 administration jobs, and Citigroup Inc. has stated it plans to get rid of 20,000 roles by 2026.” • I so don’t need to go on TikTok. Do I’ve to?

“Labor board regional official clears manner for Dartmouth hoops union” [ESPN]. “A Nationwide Labor Relations Board regional official dominated on Monday that Dartmouth basketball gamers are staff of the college, clearing the best way for an election that will create the primary labor union for NCAA athletes. All 15 members of the Dartmouth males’s basketball workforce signed a petition in September asking to affix Native 560 of the Service Staff Worldwide Union, which already represents another staff on the Ivy League faculty in Hanover, New Hampshire. Unionizing would permit the gamers to barter not solely over wage however working situations, together with observe hours and journey. ‘As a result of Dartmouth has the suitable to manage the work carried out by the Dartmouth males’s basketball workforce, and the gamers carry out that work in change for compensation, I discover that the petitioned-for basketball gamers are staff throughout the which means of the (Nationwide Labor Relations) Act,’ NLRB Regional Director Laura Sacks wrote.” • Awsome!

“McDonald’s CEO guarantees ‘affordability’ amid backlash over $18 Massive Mac combos, $6 hash browns” [New York Post]. • In order for you an operational definition of a dystopia, eighteen bucks for a Massive Mac is a fairly good begin.

Rule #2:

Information of the Wired

“These Work Reveal How the Dutch Tailored to Excessive Climate In the course of the Little Ice Age” [Smithsonian]. “Even artworks that don’t middle on local weather anomalies can provide clues concerning the [Little Ice Age (LIA)]. Students have used work of Venice’s historic structure to observe rising sea ranges by evaluating the positions of algal bands alongside the buildings’ partitions then and now. A 2010 examine of a 1571 portray by Paolo Veronese, who doubtless employed a digicam obscura to make sure proportional accuracy, concluded that the ocean degree outdoors of the Coccina household’s palace was roughly 30 inches decrease on the time than it’s at current.” • So I suppose Instagram is nice for somefactor.

The previous shouldn’t be useless (and hoping decision is adequate):

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “I’m unsure what this flower is. The picture was taken on the Los Angeles County Arboretum and Botanic Backyard.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives: