2:00PM Water Cooler 3/29/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, WHO on airborne to return. –lambert

Hen Tune of the Day

Pink-winged Blackbird (Pink-winged), Sapsucker Woods, Tompkins, New York, United States. “Tune of a male and a track of a feminine responding instantly.” Jogs my memory of summer season within the fields within the Midwest (appropriately?).

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) Shanahan launch.

(2) Extra Tcakik on Boeing.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

RCP Ballot Averages, March 29

I feel I’ll depart this up for the entire week, so we are able to not less than mumble one thing about developments. Nationally, Trump is up 2.4% within the 5-Method, similar as final week, give or take. Trump continues to be up in all of the Swing States (extra right here). I’ve highlighted PA, (1) as a result of Trump is definitely down there, and (2) it’s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn’t Trump doing properly there?

* * *

Trump (R): “Right here’s How A lot Money Donald Trump Has” [Forbes]. As of March 8, $413 million: “Right here’s how we arrived at that determine. We start with an actual quantity: $293,834,128.42, which was Trump and his firms’ money steadiness as of June 30, 2021, per paperwork filed within the New York lawyer normal’s case in October 2022…. Regardless, from there, we are able to rely up the foremost sources of money coming in and going out by combing by means of paperwork revealed within the fraud case, Trump’s public monetary disclosures and different public data…. The large takeaway: Trump is probably going sitting on an enormous pile of money—however not sufficient to repay his authorized collectors with a easy wire switch…. Money as of June 2021: $293,834,128.42. Smaller property gross sales: +$6 million. Revenue from books, speeches and NFTs: +$21 million. D.C. resort sale and associated bills: +$112 million. Trump Hyperlinks contract sale: +$60 million. Mortgage payoffs: -$67 million. Plane bills: -$13 million. FINAL TOTAL

Roughly $413 million.” • That is earlier than the $91.6 million bond Trump posted for the Carroll case, and the $175 million for Engoron, but in addition earlier than the Fact Social public providing.

Trump (R): “Trump attends NYPD officer’s wake as he highlights crime on the marketing campaign path” [ABC]. “Former President Donald Trump on Thursday attended the wake of slain New York Police Division Officer Jonathan Diller, whom officers say was shot and killed whereas conducting a site visitors cease earlier this week. ‘What occurred is such a tragic, unhappy occasion, such a horrible factor,’ Trump instructed reporters afterward. In short remarks, he reiterated his condolences for Diller’s demise and used the wake to give attention to a frequent marketing campaign season message about crime and public security. ‘We’ve to cease it. We’ve to cease it,’ Trump stated. ‘We’ve to get again to legislation and order. We’ve to do a variety of issues otherwise, as a result of this isn’t working.’” • Kennedy appears to have sucked all of the air out of the room, a brand new expertise, for Trump, albeit little question non permanent.

* * *

Biden (D): “Three Presidents With a Complicated Previous Group Up in Effort to Defeat Trump” [Wall Street Journal]. “The relationships carry a level of complexity: Some members of Biden’s inside circle felt Obama’s crew was dismissive of the then-vice president. Present White Home officers have privately chafed at feedback by a high-profile Obama alumnus questioning the president’s re-election prospects. And Obama’s encouragement of Hillary Clinton to pursue the White Home within the 2016 election—lengthy earlier than Biden had made his personal resolution—was an irritant linking all three camps. Now, although, ‘they’re all united by the specter of Trump,’ stated James Carville, a former Clinton marketing campaign strategist. ‘Each politician has a historical past with one other one. That’s simply a part of life. However I do assume they’re fairly unified by the risk.’” And: “One longtime Clinton adviser stated the fundraiser will doubtless mark the beginning of the deployment of main Democratic belongings, from Obama and Clinton, and key surrogates within the occasion, now that Trump has grow to be the presumptive Republican nominee. Obama is anticipated to carry fundraisers for the marketing campaign arms of Home and Senate Democrats, as he has executed previously, whereas Clinton expects to play a extra energetic position than in recent times—and can assist at any time when he’s requested.” • Clinton “expects,” eh?

Biden (D): “President Biden’s celeb-packed $25M fundraiser is the peak of Dem elitism” [New York Post]. “Thursday evening provided the possibility to have a glam photographer snap you slapping palms with President Biden, or predecessors Barack Obama and Invoice Clinton, for a donation of a mere $100,000 to Biden’s re-election marketing campaign: Fairly posh for the supposed occasion of the working class. The Radio Metropolis Music Corridor occasion featured a three-prez chat moderated by “The Late Present” host Stephen Colbert, plus performances from Queen Latifah, Lizzo, Lea Michele and extra. With tickets ranging as much as $500,000 a pop, the marketing campaign reportedly pulled in $25 million earlier than the doorways even opened, a pleasant addition to the $155 million the Biden-Harris effort has in hand, en path to doubtless elevating a billion or two complete (not counting comfortable, darkish and different off-the-record cash).” • Moderated by Stephen Colbert…. I’m so outdated I bear in mind when political comedians have been deemed to be gamers.

* * *

Kennedy (I): “Meddlers for RFK Jr.” [Kimberly Strassel, Wall Street Journal]. “However dread is now constructing amongst Democrats that these third-party campaigns are dangling in entrance of Republicans a ripe and tempting new tactic—one Democrats know all about, having perfected it. For greater than a decade, left-wing teams have interfered in GOP primaries, boosting the candidates they contemplate most beatable in a normal election. Solely this month, a bunch related to Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer dumped thousands and thousands into highlighting the ‘too conservative’ Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno, who received the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Modify this technique for a normal election and a third-party marketing campaign. How lengthy earlier than GOP tremendous PACs are working adverts in swing states highlighting, say, Mr. Kennedy’s proposal to ban fracking (one thing Mr. Biden hasn’t executed), labeling him an ‘excessive environmentalist’? What number of younger local weather activists may just like the sounds of that label? Think about an advert reminding younger voters—pissed off by Mr. Biden’s collapsed guarantees on school debt—that Ms. Stein was for student-loan forgiveness earlier than it was cool. And people are the delicate eventualities. Why not a GOP-funded advert on city radio stations that straight slams Mr. Biden for his failure to assist minorities and touts Mr. West? A latest article in Mom Jones posited such a ‘sneaky’ and ‘weaponized’ transfer by the GOP, below the headline: ‘Will RFK Jr. and Different Third-Occasion Candidates Assist Doom Democracy?’ The piece by some means failed to notice that it was the Democrats who mainstreamed such ways.” • Two can play the “Pied Piper” sport….

Kennedy (I): “Will RFK Jr.’s Assist for Israel Restrict His Attraction on the Left?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “The RFK Jr. campaign is primarily targeted on his relentless perception within the ‘company seize’ of presidency on each entrance, from protection to well being care to scientific analysis to agriculture to his unique coverage subject, the atmosphere. Pharma and Massive Ag and the medical career and the military-industrial complicated and chemical firms are the preeminent villains of his lurid story of American Carnage (related in ferocity however not in precise content material to Donald Trump’s). Any voters with even a obscure dedication to free markets and company advantage couldn’t put up with a lot publicity to RFK Jr.’s message. The extra you take heed to the candidate and his supporters’ intense anger over processed meals and weight problems and overdevelopment, the much less you possibly can think about any widespread floor with the fast-food-chomping real-estate developer of Mar-a-Lago. This was evident at Kennedy’s March 26 rally in Oakland, California, the place he introduced fellow ex-Democrat Nicole Shanahan as his working mate. The Bay Space setting strengthened the sensation of a left-wing insurgency. When Kennedy spoke fondly of his father’s cozy relationship with the Oakland-based Black Panther Occasion, you knew you have been distant not solely from the Republican Occasion however from the form of centrist unbiased motion represented by No Labels.” Extra: “Nonetheless, there’s an enormous impediment between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and any hope that he may grow to be 2024’s pied piper of progressive youth, a lot as his dad turned 56 years in the past. It’s his intensely pro-Israel place in its warfare with Hamas…. In Oakland, Shanahan referred to as RFK Jr. the ‘solely anti-war candidate at this time, [the] solely peace candidate.’ Nonetheless, Kennedy opposes a cease-fire within the Israel-Hamas battle.” • Yep. It might even be, nonetheless, that Kennedy’s positions will not be that coherent or fastidiously thought by means of.

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. threatens to play 2024 spoiler as No Labels struggles to construct ticket” [Washington Examiner]. “‘[Kennedy’s] numbers are so small in the long run that statistically, it’s truly actually exhausting to inform for certain who they’re going to be taking extra votes for,’ [Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University] stated of third-party candidates. ‘So, though it seems to be proper now prefer it hurts Biden extra, no one truly is aware of that, which I feel explains why Trump can also be attacking RFK Jr.’ Trump attacked Kennedy in a Fact Social put up early Wednesday morning, calling him the ‘most Radical Left Candidate within the race’ and claiming that ‘he’s Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine. I like that he’s working!’ [political consultant Nachama Soloveichik] cautioned that ‘some individuals may keep residence. Some individuals may exit and vote for down-ballot races like Senate and issues like that and simply depart the presidential poll clean. It could possibly be a spread of issues.’ ‘[Kennedy’s] a chaos issue,’ [Lee Drutman, senior fellow in the political reform program at New America] stated. ‘Partially as a result of it appears fairly clear that he’s going to get some help from a type of unpredictable slice of the voters, and I feel he has the potential to trigger some actual uncertainty.’” • Volatility!

Kennedy (I): “Neglect Kennedy Democrats. Right here Comes the 2024 Kennedy Voter” [Politico]. “The brand new Kennedy voters scattering by means of the cavernous venue have traveled a great distance from Camelot. Speaking to them, it’s clear their misgivings about highly effective establishments — what they see as a panoply of venal politicians, an untrustworthy media, Massive Ag, Massive Pharma, Massive Tech — has led lots of them to embrace fringe theories. A shared aversion to vaccines hardened in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. They fear about chemical substances and monoculture crops eroding public well being. They’re weary of grinding international wars. They admire Kennedy’s historical past of difficult highly effective firms. However above all else, they imagine the American political system is basically damaged and that each President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will perpetuate its disrepair. They’re ex-Democrats, former Republicans and newly energetic independents — they usually all discuss feeling each a profound disillusionment within the state of the nation and a deep optimism that Kennedy would cause them to one thing higher. ‘The opposite two candidates promote the division that’s plaguing our nation,’ says Sarah Morris, a former ‘party-voting Democrat’ who felt ‘ostracized by the left’ for not eager to get the Covid-19 vaccine [which is absurd, because ‘the left’ has been nowhere through the entire pandemic]. Some individuals ‘weaponize the concept of being a conspiracy theorist,’ she says, so she determined to ‘put on it as a badge of honor.’ Actually: She confirmed up sporting a grey baseball cap with the phrases ‘Tin Foil’ written on it.” • The treachery of photographs, eh? In reverse?

* * *

Kennedy (I): “Nicole Shanahan is a Mama Bear Outsider with Empathy. That’s a Good Factor” [The Kennedy Beacon]. “Shanahan has set a excessive bar for us, organizing walkouts in highschool to protest the Iraq Warfare, serving to victims of civil warfare in El Salvador, determining what could have prompted her daughter’s well being to tank, producing documentaries about what would assist our society get wholesome once more, and calling boldly (whereas many in “science” shout, “Nothing to see right here!”) for analysis into each doable factor that could possibly be making People chronically unwell. Like Kennedy, her life speaks inspiration into existence. The lesson I’ve taken from a cursory peek into her backstory: do no matter you possibly can.” • So that they’re going with “Mama Bear”?

* * *

“The struggle to flip the Home simply acquired tougher for Dems. And so they have New York in charge” [Politico]. “Whereas there’s an outdoor likelihood of one other last-minute redistricting earlier than November, after two vital court docket rulings this week the Home panorama is basically locked in place — and the GOP is respiration a sigh of aid that this mid-decade spherical of redistricting went its method…. The GOP got here out forward because of the redistricting aggression of North Carolina Republicans — and the timidity of New York Democrats…. However probably the most consequential post-midterm redistricting occurred in New York — the place traces drawn by the Democratic legislature solely made pretty small tweaks to the state’s map. It was a surprising flip of occasions after years of authorized wrangling. The state has an unbiased redistricting fee cut up evenly between the 2 events — however in the end, the Democratic-dominated state legislature will get the ultimate say. And in 2022, when Democrats in Albany handed a gerrymander so aggressive that Republicans referred to as it the ‘Hochulmander’ — a portmanteau with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s identify — the GOP sued. The bombshell authorized victory Republicans received earlier than the midterms resulted in a hypercompetitive, court-drawn map being utilized in 2022. The GOP almost swept all the contested seats, key to Republicans’ slender Home majority. However Democrats needed one other shot. After the midterms, they in the end received a procedural court docket ruling permitting them to begin the entire course of over — the fee with the primary crack, and ultimate approval to the Democratic legislature. Pursuing one other likelihood at a redraw led to rampant hypothesis that Democrats needed one other shot at a gerrymander — although maybe not fairly as ruthless as final time. But it surely was to not be. The state’s unbiased fee got here to a bipartisan settlement on a map that solely made modest modifications. The Democratic-dominated state legislature signaled it was sad with that map and would make modifications of its personal — however then solely made minor tweaks on traces that in the end acquired bipartisan approval.” • I dunno. New York Democrats appear to be nice at lawfare, not too good at the rest. Readers?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

ake impact by summer season. The transfer by the Democratic administration angered board members, who referred to as it a ‘last-minute stunt’ that undermines their regulatory course of. It additionally sparked a protest by warehouse employees, who briefly shut down the assembly as they waved indicators declaring that ‘Warmth Kills!’ and loudly chanted, ‘What do we wish? Warmth safety! When do we wish it? Now!’” • Gavin Newsom, the employee’s buddy.

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at this time; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out on the degree of earlier Trump peaks. Not an important victory. Word additionally the world “below the curve,” moreover peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.

[2] (Biobot) Backward revisions, I hate them.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Seems to be like a really gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely.

Stats Watch

Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “US private earnings rose by 0.3% from the earlier month in February of 2024, decelerating from the one-year excessive improve of 1% within the earlier month and barely beneath market expectations of a 0.4% development.”

“Would Boeing homicide a whistleblower? [Moe Tkacik, ThreadReaderApp]. “Earlier than this month I’d have stated it relies upon. I didn’t assume Boeing would kill a center supervisor who by no means labored on the 737 Max & left in 2017. What shocked me was what number of extra knowledgeable observers felt Boeing…may…. ‘I don’t assume one will be cynical sufficient in terms of these guys,’ stated a longtime exec.” • Lengthy thread, like a sketchbook of the place Tkacik is on the story, properly price a learn. Or maybe not executives? Commentary:

There’s a contented thought!

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 71 Greed (earlier shut: 70 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 67 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 28 at 8:59:51 PM ET.

The Gallery

Nature morte:

It’s humorous how the nonetheless life is barely a minor style in pictures. I’m wondering why that’s?

Information of the Wired

“Reminiscences are made by breaking DNA — and fixing it” [Nature]. The deck: “Nerve cells kind long-term recollections with the assistance of an inflammatory response, research in mice finds” (!!). “, a research in mice exhibits. The findings, printed on 27 March in Nature, are ‘extraordinarily thrilling’, says Li-Huei Tsai, a neurobiologist on the Massachusetts Institute of Know-how in Cambridge who was not concerned within the work. They contribute to the image that forming recollections is a ‘dangerous enterprise’, she says. Usually, breaks in each strands of the double helix DNA molecule are related to illnesses together with most cancers. However on this case, the DNA damage-and-repair cycle affords one clarification for a way recollections may kind and final…. Tomás Ryan, an engram neuroscientist at Trinity Faculty Dublin, says the research offers ‘the most effective proof thus far that DNA restore is vital for reminiscence.’ However he questions whether or not the neurons encode one thing distinct from the engram — as a substitute, he says, the DNA harm and restore could possibly be a consequence of engram creation. ‘Forming an engram is a high-impact occasion; you must do a variety of housekeeping after,’ he says.” • If certainly “engrams” are greater than theoretical!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From tennesseewaltzer:

tennesseewaltzer writes: “This occurs with snow and rain and freezing temperatures, which average to supply the icicles. Usually alongside a state thoroughfare lower by means of the native stone which undergirds a lot of Center Tennessee land.” A reasonably scene… I feel there are lichens on these rocks. Someplace….

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